· Analysis updated 16:28 UTC
PSV/Eindhoven W vs Twente W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for PSV/Eindhoven W and 1.83 for Twente W, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Twente W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.4% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PSV/Eindhoven W home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Twente W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.2%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–15.5%
Recent form
PSV/Eindhoven W
- 2026-10-18T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Ajax W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:45:00.000Z · A vs ADO Den Haag W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Hjørring W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs De Graafschap W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Hjørring W · 1-0 (W)
Twente W
- 2026-10-04T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:15:00.000Z · A vs AZ W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV/Eindhoven W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen W · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · PSV/Eindhoven W 0-4 Twente W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · PSV/Eindhoven W 3-0 Twente W (Super Cup Women)
- 2026-05-22T18:00:00.000Z · PSV/Eindhoven W 2-1 Twente W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2025-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · PSV/Eindhoven W 1-3 Twente W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2025-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · PSV/Eindhoven W 2-3 Twente W (Super Cup Women)
- 2025-02-01T15:30:00.000Z · PSV/Eindhoven W 2-2 Twente W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2024-10-05T14:30:00.000Z · PSV/Eindhoven W 0-0 Twente W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2024-03-10T15:45:00.000Z · PSV/Eindhoven W 1-3 Twente W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2023-11-10T18:30:00.000Z · PSV/Eindhoven W 1-2 Twente W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2023-01-31T18:00:00.000Z · PSV/Eindhoven W 0-3 Twente W (Eredivisie Women)
Super Cup Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV/Eindhoven W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Twente W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.