De Herdgang · Analysis updated 14:01 UTC
PSV/Eindhoven W vs Twente W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for PSV/Eindhoven W and 1.15 for Twente W, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives PSV/Eindhoven W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PSV/Eindhoven W home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Twente W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 0–111.5%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–27.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 53.3% vs market 42.7%, edge +10.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 42.7% | 53.3% | 1.88 | +10.6 |
| Match result | Away | 2.50 | 35.4% | 35.8% | 2.79 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.3% | 71.6% | 1.40 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 28.5% | 28.4% | 3.52 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 64.4% | 64.2% | 1.56 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 64.4% | 64.2% | 1.56 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.45 | 36.1% | 35.8% | 2.79 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.60 | 57.3% | 46.7% | 2.14 | -10.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
PSV/Eindhoven W
- 2026-10-18T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Ajax W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:45:00.000Z · A vs ADO Den Haag W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Hjørring W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs De Graafschap W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Hjørring W · 1-0 (W)
Twente W
- 2026-10-04T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:15:00.000Z · A vs AZ W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV/Eindhoven W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen W · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · PSV/Eindhoven W 0-4 Twente W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · PSV/Eindhoven W 3-0 Twente W (Super Cup Women)
- 2026-05-22T18:00:00.000Z · PSV/Eindhoven W 2-1 Twente W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2025-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · PSV/Eindhoven W 1-3 Twente W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2025-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · PSV/Eindhoven W 2-3 Twente W (Super Cup Women)
- 2025-02-01T15:30:00.000Z · PSV/Eindhoven W 2-2 Twente W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2024-10-05T14:30:00.000Z · PSV/Eindhoven W 0-0 Twente W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2024-03-10T15:45:00.000Z · PSV/Eindhoven W 1-3 Twente W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2023-11-10T18:30:00.000Z · PSV/Eindhoven W 1-2 Twente W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2023-01-31T18:00:00.000Z · PSV/Eindhoven W 0-3 Twente W (Eredivisie Women)
Eredivisie Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Twente W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 18 |
| 2 | Ajax W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | AZ W | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 12 |
| 4 | PSV/Eindhoven W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Heerenveen W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 6 | ADO Den Haag W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 7 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 8 | De Graafschap W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 9 | Feyenoord W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 10 | Utrecht W | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.