Púchov vs MŠK Senec Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Púchov and 1.20 for MŠK Senec, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Púchov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Púchov home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
MŠK Senec away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Púchov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Púchov and 1.20 for MŠK Senec, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Púchov win44%

Draw26%

MŠK Senec win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.1%
1–010.1%
2–19.1%
0–18.1%
2–07.6%

Recent form

Púchov

2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs MŠK Senec · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Gabčíkovo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Beluša · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Trenčín II · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Trnava · 1-3 (L)

MŠK Senec

2026-08-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs DAC II · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Baník Prievidza · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Častkovce · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Šamorín · 0-7 (L)
2026-06-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Malacky · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. liga - West table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nitra	11	10	1	0	31	31
2	Dunajská Lužná	11	6	3	2	6	21
3	Púchov	11	5	4	2	11	19
4	Beluša	12	4	6	2	6	18
5	Spartak Myjava	11	5	3	3	6	18
6	Gabčíkovo	11	5	2	4	2	17
7	Baník Prievidza	11	5	1	5	1	16
8	Nové Zámky	11	4	3	4	-5	15
9	DAC II	11	4	2	5	3	14
10	Trenčín II	11	4	2	5	1	14
11	Komárno II	11	4	2	5	-9	14
12	MŠK Senec	12	4	1	7	-10	13
13	Častkovce	11	3	2	6	-7	11
14	Rača	11	2	4	5	-11	10
15	Veľké Ludince	11	2	3	6	-14	9
16	Slovan Duslo Šaľa	11	1	3	7	-11	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.