· Analysis updated 00:10 UTC
Púchov vs Nové Zámky Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Púchov and 1.25 for Nové Zámky, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Nové Zámky the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.7% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Púchov home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nové Zámky away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nové Zámky to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 30% / 28% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Púchov and 1.25 for Nové Zámky, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.8%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–010.3%
- 1–28.2%
Recent form
Púchov
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs MŠK Senec · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Gabčíkovo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Beluša · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Trenčín II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Trnava · 1-3 (L)
Nové Zámky
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Častkovce · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs MŠK Senec · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Svätý Jur · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gabčíkovo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Beluša · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nitra | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 34 |
| 2 | Dunajská Lužná | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 | Púchov | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 22 |
| 4 | Spartak Myjava | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 5 | Beluša | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 18 |
| 6 | Nové Zámky | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 18 |
| 7 | Gabčíkovo | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Baník Prievidza | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 16 |
| 9 | DAC II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 |
| 10 | Trenčín II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 11 | Komárno II | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 14 |
| 12 | MŠK Senec | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 13 |
| 13 | Častkovce | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 11 |
| 14 | Rača | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -12 | 10 |
| 15 | Veľké Ludince | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Slovan Duslo Šaľa | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.