Puebla Calzada vs Castuera Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Puebla Calzada and 1.70 for Castuera, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Castuera the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Castuera win

50.2% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 1.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Puebla Calzada home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Castuera away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Castuera to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 26% / 24% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Puebla Calzada and 1.70 for Castuera, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Puebla Calzada win26%

Draw24%

Castuera win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–111.3%
0–19.8%
1–29.6%
0–28.4%
1–06.6%

Recent form

Puebla Calzada

2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Llerenense · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Moralo · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Pueblonuevo · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Quintana · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Plasencia · 3-0 (W)

Castuera

2026-10-18T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Moralo · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Pueblonuevo · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Plasencia · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Jerez · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Puebla Calzada · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Azuaga	6	5	0	1	10	15
2	Moralo	6	4	2	0	6	14
3	Llerenense	5	4	1	0	4	13
4	Castuera	5	4	0	1	10	12
5	Villanovense	6	3	1	2	3	10
6	Puebla Calzada	6	2	2	2	2	8
7	CD Zafra	5	2	2	1	2	8
8	Gévora	6	2	2	2	-2	8
9	Jerez	5	2	1	2	1	7
10	Montijo	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	Santa Amalia	5	1	3	1	1	6
12	Cabeza Buey	6	1	3	2	0	6
13	Villafranca	5	2	0	3	-1	6
14	Jaraíz	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Quintana	5	1	2	2	-3	5
16	Atlético Pueblonuevo	6	0	3	3	-10	3
17	Plasencia	5	0	2	3	-6	2
18	Guadiana	6	0	1	5	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Castuera win, at 50.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.