Estadio Cuauhtémoc · Referee Adonai Escobedo Gonzalez, Mexico · Analysis updated 15:27 UTC
Puebla vs Toluca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Puebla and 1.20 for Toluca, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Toluca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.8% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Puebla home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Toluca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 31% / 29% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Puebla and 1.20 for Toluca, a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 0–113.0%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–010.8%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
Puebla
- 2026-10-10T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Leon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T03:10:00.000Z · A vs Tigres UANL · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlante FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Toluca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Necaxa · 1-0 (W)
Toluca
- 2026-09-26T22:50:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos Laguna · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Puebla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:05:00.000Z · H vs Atlas · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Monterrey · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 5 | Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | CF Pachuca | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | Santos Laguna | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.