Complejo Deportivo Socialista · Referee J. Valenzuela · Analysis updated 13:14 UTC
Puerto Cabello vs Carabobo FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Puerto Cabello and 0.80 for Carabobo FC, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Puerto Cabello the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.0% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Puerto Cabello home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Carabobo FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Puerto Cabello to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 32% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Puerto Cabello and 0.80 for Carabobo FC, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.6%
- 0–015.7%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.5%
- 2–08.7%
Recent form
Puerto Cabello
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Trujillanos FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Portuguesa FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Tachira FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Carabobo FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T23:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV · 0-0 (D)
Carabobo FC
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo La Guaira · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Puerto Cabello · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes de Merida FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Zuliano · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.