Centreville Bank Stadium · Analysis updated 08:37 UTC
Puerto Rico vs Nicaragua Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Puerto Rico and 1.14 for Nicaragua, a combined total of 3.14. That distribution gives Puerto Rico the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Puerto Rico win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Puerto Rico home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nicaragua away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Puerto Rico to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 22% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Puerto Rico and 1.14 for Nicaragua, a combined 3.14 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–08.6%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
Puerto Rico
- 2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Dominica · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Guyana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-05T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Saudi Arabia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-29T00:00:00.000Z · H vs US Virgin Islands · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-26T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Guam · 4-0 (W)
Nicaragua
- 2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Curaçao · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Dominican Republic · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-05T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Paraguay · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs South Africa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-03-27T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Russia · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Puerto Rico win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.