Q2 Stadium · Analysis updated 16:41 UTC
Puerto Rico vs Saudi Arabia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Puerto Rico and 1.14 for Saudi Arabia, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Puerto Rico the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.1% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Puerto Rico home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Saudi Arabia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Puerto Rico to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 27% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Puerto Rico and 1.14 for Saudi Arabia, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–07.9%
Recent form
Puerto Rico
- 2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Dominica · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Guyana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-05T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Saudi Arabia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-29T00:00:00.000Z · H vs US Virgin Islands · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-26T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Guam · 4-0 (W)
Saudi Arabia
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Kuwait · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-27T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cape Verde Islands · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spain · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-06-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Uruguay · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Senegal · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.