· Referee E. Nevarez · Analysis updated 06:11 UTC
Pumas UNAM W vs América W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Pumas UNAM W and 3.72 for América W, a combined total of 5.40. That distribution gives América W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
América W win
74.5% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 3.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pumas UNAM W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
América W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates América W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 13% / 12% / 75% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Pumas UNAM W and 3.72 for América W, a combined 5.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
26%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–36.5%
- 1–46.1%
- 2–35.5%
- 1–25.2%
- 2–45.1%
Recent form
Pumas UNAM W
- 2026-10-03T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-28T21:45:00.000Z · A vs Atlante W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Puebla W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T03:00:00.000Z · H vs América W · 1-2 (L)
América W
- 2026-10-03T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey W · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-28T23:00:00.000Z · A vs León W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T21:45:00.000Z · H vs Atlas W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL W · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Pumas UNAM W · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX Femenil table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monterrey W | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 30 |
| 2 | América W | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 28 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL W | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 28 |
| 4 | Guadalajara W | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 24 |
| 5 | Juárez W | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 6 | Toluca W | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 7 | Atlético San Luis W | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 8 | Pumas UNAM W | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | León W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Santos Laguna W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 16 |
| 11 | Cruz Azul W | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 15 |
| 12 | Atlas W | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 13 |
| 13 | Tijuana W | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 14 | Pachuca W | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -2 | 10 |
| 15 | Atlante W | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Querétaro W | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -14 | 6 |
| 17 | Puebla W | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -26 | 4 |
| 18 | Necaxa W | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | -42 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is América W win, at 74.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.