Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Angel Lito Perez Treacy · Referee A. Chinchilla · Analysis updated 08:28 UTC
Puntarenas FC vs Inter San Carlos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Puntarenas FC and 1.16 for Inter San Carlos, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Puntarenas FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Puntarenas FC home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Inter San Carlos away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Puntarenas FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for Puntarenas FC and 1.16 for Inter San Carlos, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.4%
- 2–07.8%
Recent form
Puntarenas FC
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Escorpiones Belén · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter San Carlos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Cartagines · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T22:00:00.000Z · A vs San Carlos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Perez Zeledon · 1-0 (W)
Inter San Carlos
- 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Puntarenas FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T02:00:00.000Z · H vs LD Alajuelense · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T02:00:00.000Z · A vs San Carlos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Perez Zeledon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T23:00:00.000Z · A vs LD Alajuelense · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Saprissa | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 24 |
| 2 | CS Cartagines | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 | Sporting San Jose | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 24 |
| 4 | LD Alajuelense | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | San Carlos | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 22 |
| 6 | Puntarenas FC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 18 |
| 7 | Inter San Carlos | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 18 |
| 8 | CS Herediano | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | Escorpiones Belén | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 10 |
| 10 | Perez Zeledon | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.