Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Angel Lito Perez Treacy · Analysis updated 12:39 UTC
Puntarenas FC vs San Carlos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Puntarenas FC and 1.15 for San Carlos, a combined total of 2.26. That distribution gives San Carlos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Puntarenas FC home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Carlos away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Carlos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 35% / 29% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Puntarenas FC and 1.15 for San Carlos, a combined 2.26 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 0–111.9%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–010.4%
- 1–27.7%
Recent form
Puntarenas FC
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Escorpiones Belén · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter San Carlos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Cartagines · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T22:00:00.000Z · A vs San Carlos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Perez Zeledon · 1-0 (W)
San Carlos
- 2026-10-14T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter San Carlos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T02:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Herediano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T01:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Cartagines · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Perez Zeledon · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting San Jose · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Saprissa | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | CS Cartagines | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 24 |
| 3 | Sporting San Jose | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 4 | LD Alajuelense | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 5 | San Carlos | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 6 | Inter San Carlos | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 18 |
| 7 | Puntarenas FC | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 15 |
| 8 | CS Herediano | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | Escorpiones Belén | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Perez Zeledon | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.