Pusamania Borneo vs Dewa United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Pusamania Borneo and 1.00 for Dewa United, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Dewa United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

73.5% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.75 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pusamania Borneo home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dewa United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dewa United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 27% / 33% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Pusamania Borneo and 1.00 for Dewa United, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Pusamania Borneo win27%

Draw33%

Dewa United win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

67%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals52%

Over 2.5 goals26%

Over 3.5 goals10%

Both teams to score33%

Correct score

0–017.4%
0–117.4%
1–013.0%
1–113.0%
0–28.7%

Recent form

Pusamania Borneo

2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tainan City · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Yangon United · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-11T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Java United · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Buriram United · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Bali United · 1-0 (W)

Dewa United

2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · H vs PSS Sleman · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Pusamania Borneo · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bhayangkara FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persik Kediri · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bali United · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Persija	6	5	0	1	10	15
2	Dewa United	7	4	2	1	2	14
3	Bali United	7	4	1	2	12	13
4	Persepam Madura Utd	6	4	1	1	4	13
5	Persib Bandung	7	4	1	2	3	13
6	Persita	6	3	3	0	3	12
7	Bhayangkara FC	6	2	4	0	3	10
8	Persik Kediri	6	3	1	2	3	10
9	Arema FC	7	2	3	2	2	9
10	Persebaya Surabaya	6	2	3	1	1	9
11	PSM Makassar	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Java United	7	2	3	2	0	7
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
14	Garudayaksa	7	1	2	4	-7	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	1	1	4	-2	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	7	1	2	4	-9	3
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	7	0	2	5	-8	2
18	Persijap	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.