Pusamania Borneo vs Semen Padang Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Pusamania Borneo and 0.73 for Semen Padang, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Pusamania Borneo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Pusamania Borneo win

70.7% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.18 – 0.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pusamania Borneo home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Semen Padang away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pusamania Borneo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 18% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Pusamania Borneo and 0.73 for Semen Padang, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Pusamania Borneo win71%

Draw18%

Semen Padang win11%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

29%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

2–013.0%
1–012.0%
2–19.4%
3–09.4%
1–18.7%

Recent form

Pusamania Borneo

2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Bali United · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Dewa United · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persijap · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Persija · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Java United · 7-1 (W)

Semen Padang

2026-05-23T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Persija · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-15T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persebaya Surabaya · 0-7 (L)
2026-05-08T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persik Kediri · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dewa United · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-29T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persepam Madura Utd · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Persija	6	5	0	1	10	15
2	Dewa United	6	4	2	0	6	14
3	Persepam Madura Utd	6	4	1	1	4	13
4	Bali United	6	4	0	2	12	12
5	Persita	5	3	2	0	3	11
6	Bhayangkara FC	6	2	4	0	3	10
7	Persik Kediri	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	Persib Bandung	6	3	1	2	2	10
9	Persebaya Surabaya	6	2	3	1	1	9
10	PSM Makassar	6	2	2	2	-3	8
11	Java United	6	2	2	2	0	6
12	Arema FC	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
14	Garudayaksa	6	1	2	3	-6	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	1	1	4	-2	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	6	1	1	4	-9	2
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	6	0	1	5	-8	1
18	Persijap	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Pusamania Borneo win, at 70.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.