Pancho Arena · Analysis updated 16:06 UTC
Puskas Academy vs Debreceni VSC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for Puskas Academy and 1.11 for Debreceni VSC, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Puskas Academy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Puskas Academy win
55.5% probability
Expected goals
1.89 – 1.11
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Puskas Academy home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Debreceni VSC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Puskas Academy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 22% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.89 goals for Puskas Academy and 1.11 for Debreceni VSC, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–08.9%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
Puskas Academy
- 2026-10-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunajska Streda · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Budapest Honved · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mezőörs · 8-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Zalaegerszegi TE · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferencvarosi TC · 1-2 (L)
Debreceni VSC
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasas · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gödöllő · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Paks · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs MTK Budapest · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Kisvarda FC · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puskas Academy | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 2 | Vasas | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Gyori ETO FC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 4 | Ujpest | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Paks | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Ferencvarosi TC | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Kisvarda FC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Debreceni VSC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | MTK Budapest | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 11 | Nyiregyhaza | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Budapest Honved | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Puskas Academy win, at 55.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.