Pancho Arena · Analysis updated 16:27 UTC
Puskas Academy vs Debreceni VSC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Puskas Academy and 1.19 for Debreceni VSC, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Puskas Academy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Puskas Academy win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Puskas Academy home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Debreceni VSC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Puskas Academy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 25% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for Puskas Academy and 1.19 for Debreceni VSC, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.9%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
Puskas Academy
- 2026-10-25T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Nyiregyhaza · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Ujpest · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gyori ETO FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunajska Streda · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Budapest Honved · 3-1 (W)
Debreceni VSC
- 2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Budapest Honved · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Zalaegerszegi TE · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferencvarosi TC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasas · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gödöllő · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyori ETO FC | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Puskas Academy | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| 3 | Ferencvarosi TC | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Paks | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Debreceni VSC | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | Vasas | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Ujpest | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Kisvarda FC | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | MTK Budapest | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 10 | Nyiregyhaza | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 11 |
| 11 | Budapest Honved | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -9 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Puskas Academy win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.