Pancho Arena · Referee P. Antal · Analysis updated 20:47 UTC
Puskas Academy vs Ferencvarosi TC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Puskas Academy and 1.43 for Ferencvarosi TC, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Puskas Academy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Puskas Academy home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ferencvarosi TC away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.7%
- 1–07.6%
- 0–16.6%
Recent form
Puskas Academy
- 2026-10-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunajska Streda · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Budapest Honved · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mezőörs · 8-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Zalaegerszegi TE · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferencvarosi TC · 1-2 (L)
Ferencvarosi TC
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Debreceni VSC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Nyiregyhaza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtic · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs DEAC · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Ujpest · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · Puskas Academy 1-2 Ferencvarosi TC (NB I)
- 2026-04-14T16:45:00.000Z · Puskas Academy 1-2 Ferencvarosi TC (NB I)
- 2025-11-30T18:30:00.000Z · Puskas Academy 1-2 Ferencvarosi TC (NB I)
- 2025-08-16T18:15:00.000Z · Puskas Academy 2-1 Ferencvarosi TC (NB I)
- 2025-05-03T17:30:00.000Z · Puskas Academy 1-1 Ferencvarosi TC (NB I)
- 2025-02-09T17:00:00.000Z · Puskas Academy 1-0 Ferencvarosi TC (NB I)
- 2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · Puskas Academy 0-3 Ferencvarosi TC (NB I)
- 2024-03-17T13:45:00.000Z · Puskas Academy 1-1 Ferencvarosi TC (NB I)
- 2023-11-26T16:00:00.000Z · Puskas Academy 1-1 Ferencvarosi TC (NB I)
- 2023-11-01T19:00:00.000Z · Puskas Academy 3-4 Ferencvarosi TC (Magyar Kupa)
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puskas Academy | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 2 | Vasas | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Gyori ETO FC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 4 | Ujpest | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Paks | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Ferencvarosi TC | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Kisvarda FC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Debreceni VSC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | MTK Budapest | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 11 | Nyiregyhaza | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Budapest Honved | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.