· Analysis updated 14:30 UTC
Puskás II vs Balatonalmádi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.63 expected goals for Puskás II and 1.63 for Balatonalmádi, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Puskás II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Puskás II win
59.1% probability
Expected goals
2.63 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Puskás II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Balatonalmádi away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Puskás II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 18% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.63 goals for Puskás II and 1.63 for Balatonalmádi, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 3–17.0%
- 2–26.5%
- 1–16.1%
- 3–25.7%
Recent form
Puskás II
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs MTE 1904 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Balatonalmádi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dorogi FC · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Sárisápi Bányász · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Pápai Perutz · 5-0 (W)
Balatonalmádi
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Király SZE · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Puskás II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sárisápi Bányász · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Sopron · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Tatabánya · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Northwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dorogi FC | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 26 |
| 2 | Tatabánya | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 26 |
| 3 | Haladás VSE | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 25 |
| 4 | Sárisápi Bányász | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| 5 | SC Sopron | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 6 | Bicskei | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Puskás II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | MTE 1904 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 9 | Komárom | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 10 | Gyori ETO II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Veszprém | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Zalaegerszegi TE II | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Pápai Perutz | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 11 |
| 14 | Király SZE | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 7 |
| 15 | Balatonalmádi | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -23 | 5 |
| 16 | 1908 SZAC | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -26 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Puskás II win, at 59.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.