· Analysis updated 22:33 UTC
Puskás II vs Sárisápi Bányász Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Puskás II and 1.67 for Sárisápi Bányász, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Puskás II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Puskás II win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Puskás II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sárisápi Bányász away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Puskás II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 21% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Puskás II and 1.67 for Sárisápi Bányász, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.5%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–27.1%
- 3–15.7%
Recent form
Puskás II
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs MTE 1904 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Balatonalmádi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dorogi FC · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Sárisápi Bányász · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Pápai Perutz · 5-0 (W)
Sárisápi Bányász
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Veszprém · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Király SZE · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Balatonalmádi · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Puskás II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Sopron · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · Puskás II 1-2 Sárisápi Bányász (NB III - Northwest)
NB III - Northwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haladás VSE | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 24 |
| 2 | Dorogi FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 23 |
| 3 | Tatabánya | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 23 |
| 4 | Sárisápi Bányász | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
| 5 | MTE 1904 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | SC Sopron | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Bicskei | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Komárom | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Gyori ETO II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Puskás II | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Zalaegerszegi TE II | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Pápai Perutz | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 11 |
| 13 | Veszprém | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 10 |
| 14 | Király SZE | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Balatonalmádi | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
| 16 | 1908 SZAC | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -25 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Puskás II win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.