Puszcza Niepołomice vs Miedz Legnica Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.35 for Miedz Legnica, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Miedz Legnica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.18 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Puszcza Niepołomice home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Miedz Legnica away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Puszcza Niepołomice win33%

Draw27%

Miedz Legnica win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.7%
0–110.8%
1–09.4%
1–28.6%
0–08.0%

Recent form

Puszcza Niepołomice

2026-10-24T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Lechia Gdansk · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nieciecza · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogoń Siedlce · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Bytom · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wieczysta Kraków · 3-4 (L)

Miedz Legnica

2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Warszawa · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Stal Mielec · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-11T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Odra Opole · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Lubin · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Rzeszów · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-24T14:30:00.000Z · Puszcza Niepołomice 1-2 Miedz Legnica (I Liga)
2025-11-21T17:00:00.000Z · Puszcza Niepołomice 1-3 Miedz Legnica (I Liga)
2022-03-06T11:40:00.000Z · Puszcza Niepołomice 1-3 Miedz Legnica (I Liga)
2021-08-20T16:00:00.000Z · Puszcza Niepołomice 0-1 Miedz Legnica (I Liga)
2021-05-19T18:00:00.000Z · Puszcza Niepołomice 0-1 Miedz Legnica (I Liga)
2020-10-16T16:00:00.000Z · Puszcza Niepołomice 1-1 Miedz Legnica (I Liga)
2020-07-01T15:40:00.000Z · Puszcza Niepołomice 0-1 Miedz Legnica (I Liga)
2019-10-04T17:00:00.000Z · Puszcza Niepołomice 0-1 Miedz Legnica (I Liga)

I Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	12	6	3	3	8	21
2	Ruch Chorzów	12	6	3	3	5	21
3	Polonia Warszawa	12	6	3	3	5	21
4	Nieciecza	12	6	2	4	2	20
5	Lechia Gdansk	12	6	1	5	3	19
6	Miedz Legnica	12	5	3	4	7	18
7	Warta Poznań	11	6	0	5	4	18
8	ŁKS Łódź	11	5	3	3	3	18
9	Polonia Bytom	12	4	6	2	0	18
10	Stal Rzeszów	12	5	2	5	-6	17
11	Pogoń Siedlce	12	4	3	5	-1	15
12	Arka Gdynia	12	4	2	6	0	14
13	Podbeskidzie	12	2	8	2	-1	14
14	Chrobry Głogów	12	3	4	5	-2	13
15	Stal Mielec	12	3	4	5	-11	13
16	Puszcza Niepołomice	12	4	0	8	-4	12
17	Odra Opole	12	3	3	6	-5	12
18	Unia Skierniewice	12	3	2	7	-7	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.