· Analysis updated 14:14 UTC
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.45 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 3.24. That distribution gives Puszcza Niepołomice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Puszcza Niepołomice win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Puszcza Niepołomice home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stal Mielec away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Puszcza Niepołomice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 23% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.45 for Stal Mielec, a combined 3.24 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–27.4%
- 1–07.0%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Puszcza Niepołomice
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Bytom · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wieczysta Kraków · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Warta Poznań · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs ŁKS Łódź · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisła Płock II · 2-0 (W)
Stal Mielec
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Warta Poznań · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Gdansk · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Nieciecza · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Odra Opole · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Polonia Warszawa | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 3 | Nieciecza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | Warta Poznań | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | ŁKS Łódź | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Ruch Chorzów | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | Miedz Legnica | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 8 | Stal Rzeszów | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 14 |
| 9 | Lechia Gdansk | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | Pogoń Siedlce | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 11 | Chrobry Głogów | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Polonia Bytom | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Stal Mielec | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 12 |
| 14 | Podbeskidzie | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Arka Gdynia | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Unia Skierniewice | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Odra Opole | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -5 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Puszcza Niepołomice win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.