· Referee P. Idzik · Analysis updated 10:28 UTC
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Unia Skierniewice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.06 for Unia Skierniewice, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Puszcza Niepołomice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.5% probability
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Puszcza Niepołomice home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Unia Skierniewice away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Puszcza Niepołomice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 28% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.06 for Unia Skierniewice, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–110.1%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–18.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 52.6% vs market 43.0%, edge +9.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.0% | 52.6% | 1.90 | +9.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 69.1% | 69.5% | 1.44 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 27.5% | 27.8% | 3.60 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 58.0% | 58.3% | 1.72 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.15 | 41.6% | 41.7% | 2.40 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.90 | 30.9% | 30.5% | 3.28 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 72.9% | 72.2% | 1.39 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.0% | 47.4% | 2.11 | -9.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Puszcza Niepołomice
- 2026-10-24T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Lechia Gdansk · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nieciecza · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogoń Siedlce · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Bytom · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wieczysta Kraków · 3-4 (L)
Unia Skierniewice
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Nieciecza · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisla Plock · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Podbeskidzie · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruch Chorzów · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · Puszcza Niepołomice 0-1 Unia Skierniewice (I Liga)
- 2024-01-16T00:00:00.000Z · Puszcza Niepołomice 0-0 Unia Skierniewice (Friendlies Clubs)
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | Polonia Warszawa | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 3 | Nieciecza | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 4 | Lechia Gdansk | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Miedz Legnica | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 18 |
| 6 | Warta Poznań | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Ruch Chorzów | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | ŁKS Łódź | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Polonia Bytom | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 10 | Stal Rzeszów | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 17 |
| 11 | Arka Gdynia | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Chrobry Głogów | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Stal Mielec | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 13 |
| 14 | Pogoń Siedlce | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 15 | Odra Opole | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 16 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -4 | 12 |
| 17 | Podbeskidzie | 11 | 1 | 8 | 2 | -2 | 11 |
| 18 | Unia Skierniewice | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.