· Analysis updated 16:16 UTC
Pyeongtaek Citizen vs Gijang United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Pyeongtaek Citizen and 1.78 for Gijang United, a combined total of 3.54. That distribution gives Gijang United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
61.3% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pyeongtaek Citizen home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gijang United away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gijang United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 22% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Pyeongtaek Citizen and 1.78 for Gijang United, a combined 3.54 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.1%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–15.2%
Recent form
Pyeongtaek Citizen
- 2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Geoje Citizen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Sejong SA · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Namyangju · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Geumsan Insam · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gijang United · 2-3 (L)
Gijang United
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyeongtaek Citizen · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Jinju Citizen · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-25T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Seosan Pioneer · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-11T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Busan Transportation · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
K4 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jinju Citizen | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 51 |
| 2 | Jincheon | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 42 |
| 3 | Namyangju | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 39 |
| 4 | Jungnang Chorus Mustang | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 37 |
| 5 | Geumsan Insam | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 6 | Geoje Citizen | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 34 |
| 7 | Jecheon Citizen | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | -3 | 31 |
| 8 | Pyeongchang United | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 9 | Sejong SA | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | -14 | 29 |
| 10 | Gijang United | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | -12 | 26 |
| 11 | Haman | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -15 | 20 |
| 12 | Pyeongtaek Citizen | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -21 | 14 |
| 13 | Seosan Pioneer | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -24 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.