· Analysis updated 15:21 UTC
Pyeongtaek Citizen vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Pyeongtaek Citizen and 2.05 for Jungnang Chorus Mustang, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Jungnang Chorus Mustang the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Jungnang Chorus Mustang win
58.1% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 2.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pyeongtaek Citizen home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jungnang Chorus Mustang away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jungnang Chorus Mustang to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 21% / 21% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Pyeongtaek Citizen and 2.05 for Jungnang Chorus Mustang, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.6%
- 0–28.6%
- 0–18.4%
- 1–36.7%
Recent form
Pyeongtaek Citizen
- 2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Geoje Citizen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Sejong SA · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Namyangju · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Geumsan Insam · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gijang United · 2-3 (L)
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sejong SA · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Namyangju · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-25T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Geumsan Insam · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-11T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Gijang United · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Namyangju · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-27T10:00:00.000Z · Pyeongtaek Citizen 1-1 Jungnang Chorus Mustang (K4 League)
- 2026-03-21T05:00:00.000Z · Pyeongtaek Citizen 0-1 Jungnang Chorus Mustang (K4 League)
K4 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jinju Citizen | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 51 |
| 2 | Jincheon | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 42 |
| 3 | Namyangju | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 39 |
| 4 | Jungnang Chorus Mustang | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 37 |
| 5 | Geumsan Insam | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 6 | Geoje Citizen | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 34 |
| 7 | Jecheon Citizen | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | -3 | 31 |
| 8 | Pyeongchang United | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 9 | Sejong SA | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | -14 | 29 |
| 10 | Gijang United | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | -12 | 26 |
| 11 | Haman | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -15 | 20 |
| 12 | Pyeongtaek Citizen | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -21 | 14 |
| 13 | Seosan Pioneer | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -24 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Jungnang Chorus Mustang win, at 58.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.