· Analysis updated 13:18 UTC
Pyunik Yerevan vs Ararat Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Pyunik Yerevan and 0.95 for Ararat, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Pyunik Yerevan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Pyunik Yerevan win
61.7% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pyunik Yerevan home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ararat away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.5%
- 2–010.5%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–07.0%
Recent form
Pyunik Yerevan
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alashkert · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Shirak · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sardarapat · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Syunik · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ararat-Armenia · 2-1 (W)
Ararat
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Shirak · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Urartu · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Ararat-Armenia · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Syunik · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gandzasar · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · Pyunik Yerevan 2-0 Ararat (Premier League)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · Pyunik Yerevan 0-1 Ararat (Premier League)
- 2025-11-30T15:00:00.000Z · Pyunik Yerevan 2-0 Ararat (Premier League)
- 2025-08-22T12:30:00.000Z · Pyunik Yerevan 2-0 Ararat (Premier League)
- 2025-05-17T14:30:00.000Z · Pyunik Yerevan 5-2 Ararat (Premier League)
- 2024-11-02T13:00:00.000Z · Pyunik Yerevan 2-0 Ararat (Premier League)
- 2024-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Pyunik Yerevan 3-0 Ararat (Premier League)
- 2024-04-17T13:00:00.000Z · Pyunik Yerevan 1-0 Ararat (Premier League)
- 2023-12-11T10:00:00.000Z · Pyunik Yerevan 2-2 Ararat (Premier League)
- 2023-11-24T10:00:00.000Z · Pyunik Yerevan 3-1 Ararat (Cup)
Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andranik | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | Lernayin Artsakh | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | Araks Ararat | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Bentonit Ijevan | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Mika | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Sardarapat | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Syunik | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Cilicia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 9 | Echmiadzin | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 10 | Ecoville | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pyunik Yerevan win, at 61.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.