Junior Sport Stadium · Analysis updated 14:13 UTC
Pyunik Yerevan vs FC Urartu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.17 expected goals for Pyunik Yerevan and 1.05 for FC Urartu, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Pyunik Yerevan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Pyunik Yerevan win
62.9% probability
Expected goals
2.17 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pyunik Yerevan home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pyunik Yerevan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 20% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.17 goals for Pyunik Yerevan and 1.05 for FC Urartu, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 58%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.4%
- 1–19.1%
- 1–08.7%
- 3–17.1%
Recent form
Pyunik Yerevan
- 2026-10-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gandzasar · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Noah · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs BKMA · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alashkert · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Shirak · 2-0 (W)
FC Urartu
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Noah | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 28 |
| 2 | Pyunik Yerevan | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Ararat-Armenia | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Alashkert | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 5 | FC Urartu | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | Sardarapat | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 16 |
| 7 | Shirak | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Ararat | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 9 | Van | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -17 | 10 |
| 10 | Syunik | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 8 |
| 11 | BKMA | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 8 |
| 12 | Gandzasar | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pyunik Yerevan win, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.