Junior Sport Stadium · Analysis updated 14:35 UTC
Pyunik Yerevan vs Shirak Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Pyunik Yerevan and 1.10 for Shirak, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Pyunik Yerevan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pyunik Yerevan win
48.3% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pyunik Yerevan home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Shirak away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.5%
- 0–17.6%
Recent form
Pyunik Yerevan
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alashkert · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Shirak · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sardarapat · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Syunik · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ararat-Armenia · 2-1 (W)
Shirak
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ararat-Armenia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyunik Yerevan · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sardarapat · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Van · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Urartu · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-06T13:00:00.000Z · Pyunik Yerevan 1-0 Shirak (Premier League)
- 2026-03-09T11:00:00.000Z · Pyunik Yerevan 3-0 Shirak (Premier League)
- 2025-08-11T16:00:00.000Z · Pyunik Yerevan 0-0 Shirak (Premier League)
- 2025-03-14T15:00:00.000Z · Pyunik Yerevan 6-1 Shirak (Premier League)
- 2024-11-28T15:00:00.000Z · Pyunik Yerevan 0-1 Shirak (Premier League)
- 2024-09-01T12:30:00.000Z · Pyunik Yerevan 2-0 Shirak (Premier League)
- 2024-05-25T13:30:00.000Z · Pyunik Yerevan 1-0 Shirak (Premier League)
- 2024-04-04T12:00:00.000Z · Pyunik Yerevan 1-1 Shirak (Premier League)
- 2023-11-28T14:00:00.000Z · Pyunik Yerevan 1-1 Shirak (Premier League)
- 2023-09-25T12:00:00.000Z · Pyunik Yerevan 1-0 Shirak (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Noah | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Pyunik Yerevan | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Ararat-Armenia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | Alashkert | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 5 | FC Urartu | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Sardarapat | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 7 | Shirak | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Ararat | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 9 | BKMA | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 10 | Van | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 7 |
| 11 | Syunik | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 12 | Gandzasar | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pyunik Yerevan win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.