· Referee R. Jabarov · Analysis updated 21:32 UTC
Qabala vs Imisli FK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Qabala and 1.08 for Imisli FK, a combined total of 2.19. That distribution gives Qabala the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Qabala home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Imisli FK away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–112.1%
- 0–011.2%
- 2–17.4%
Recent form
Qabala
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Kapaz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 0-1 (L)
Imisli FK
- 2026-09-19T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Sabah FA · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Safa Baku · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Zira · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · Qabala 2-1 Imisli FK (Premyer Liqa)
- 2026-04-12T11:30:00.000Z · Qabala 0-1 Imisli FK (Premyer Liqa)
- 2026-01-30T13:00:00.000Z · Qabala 3-2 Imisli FK (Premyer Liqa)
- 2025-10-18T10:30:00.000Z · Qabala 2-2 Imisli FK (Premyer Liqa)
- 2025-04-18T12:30:00.000Z · Qabala 0-1 Imisli FK (Birinci Dasta)
- 2025-02-13T10:00:00.000Z · Qabala 2-1 Imisli FK (Birinci Dasta)
- 2024-10-26T11:30:00.000Z · Qabala 0-0 Imisli FK (Birinci Dasta)
- 2023-12-19T12:00:00.000Z · Qabala 1-0 Imisli FK (Cup)
- 2017-11-29T10:00:00.000Z · Qabala 8-0 Imisli FK (Cup)
- 2015-12-03T13:00:00.000Z · Qabala 7-0 Imisli FK (Cup)
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.