Şəhər stadionu · Referee I. Mammadov · Analysis updated 15:00 UTC
Qabala vs Qarabag Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Qabala and 1.53 for Qarabag, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Qarabag the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Qarabag win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Qabala home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Qarabag away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.2%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–210.8%
- 0–09.3%
- 1–29.2%
Recent form
Qabala
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Sumqayıt · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Kapaz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 0-0 (D)
Qarabag
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Imisli FK · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zira · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Araz · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Sumqayıt · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-09T13:00:00.000Z · Qabala 1-1 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
- 2025-12-21T11:00:00.000Z · Qabala 1-2 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
- 2025-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · Qabala 0-2 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
- 2024-12-04T12:00:00.000Z · Qabala 0-2 Qarabag (Cup)
- 2024-04-20T12:30:00.000Z · Qabala 2-2 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
- 2024-02-28T15:00:00.000Z · Qabala 0-4 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
- 2023-12-04T15:30:00.000Z · Qabala 0-3 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
- 2023-09-25T15:00:00.000Z · Qabala 1-2 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
- 2023-05-08T16:00:00.000Z · Qabala 0-3 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
- 2023-03-05T13:00:00.000Z · Qabala 1-3 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Qarabag win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.