· Analysis updated 13:23 UTC
Qabala vs Qarabag Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.55 expected goals for Qabala and 1.33 for Qarabag, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Qarabag the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Qarabag win
55.9% probability
Expected goals
0.55 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Qabala home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Qarabag away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–120.3%
- 0–015.3%
- 0–213.5%
- 1–111.2%
- 1–08.4%
Recent form
Qabala
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Kapaz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 0-1 (L)
Qarabag
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Imisli FK · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zira · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Araz · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Sumqayıt · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-09T13:00:00.000Z · Qabala 1-1 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
- 2025-12-21T11:00:00.000Z · Qabala 1-2 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
- 2025-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · Qabala 0-2 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
- 2024-12-04T12:00:00.000Z · Qabala 0-2 Qarabag (Cup)
- 2024-04-20T12:30:00.000Z · Qabala 2-2 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
- 2024-02-28T15:00:00.000Z · Qabala 0-4 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
- 2023-12-04T15:30:00.000Z · Qabala 0-3 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
- 2023-09-25T15:00:00.000Z · Qabala 1-2 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
- 2023-05-08T16:00:00.000Z · Qabala 0-3 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
- 2023-03-05T13:00:00.000Z · Qabala 1-3 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Qarabag win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.