· Analysis updated 20:40 UTC
Qabala vs Sabah FA Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.38 expected goals for Qabala and 1.70 for Sabah FA, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Sabah FA the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 26% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sabah FA win
70.5% probability
Expected goals
0.38 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Qabala home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sabah FA away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sabah FA to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 8% / 22% / 71% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.38 goals for Qabala and 1.70 for Sabah FA, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–121.3%
- 0–218.1%
- 0–012.6%
- 0–310.3%
- 1–18.0%
Recent form
Qabala
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Kapaz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 0-1 (L)
Sabah FA
- 2026-10-09T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Neftchi Baku · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Safa Baku · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Zira · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sabah FA win, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 26% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.