Qabala vs Safa Baku Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Qabala and 0.72 for Safa Baku, a combined total of 1.77. That distribution gives Qabala the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

75.1% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.05 – 0.72

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Qabala home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Safa Baku away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Qabala to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 33% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Qabala and 0.72 for Safa Baku, a combined 1.77 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Qabala win43%

Draw33%

Safa Baku win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals53%

Over 2.5 goals26%

Over 3.5 goals11%

Both teams to score34%

Correct score

1–017.8%
0–017.0%
1–112.9%
0–112.3%
2–09.3%

Recent form

Qabala

2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Kapaz · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 0-1 (L)

Safa Baku

2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Qarabag · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabah FA · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Neftchi Baku · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-29T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premyer Liqa table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Neftchi Baku	7	5	1	1	13	16
2	Sabah FA	6	5	1	0	13	16
3	Qarabag	6	5	1	0	7	16
4	Turan	7	4	2	1	3	14
5	Zira	7	3	2	2	-1	11
6	Kapaz	6	3	1	2	-1	10
7	Şamaxı FK	7	2	4	1	2	10
8	Sumqayıt	6	1	2	3	-1	5
9	Qabala	7	1	1	5	-8	4
10	Imisli FK	7	1	1	5	-7	4
11	Safa Baku	7	1	0	6	-10	3
12	Araz	7	0	2	5	-10	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 75.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.

A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.