· Referee N. Ismayilli · Analysis updated 13:48 UTC
Qabala vs Şamaxı FK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.76 expected goals for Qabala and 1.35 for Şamaxı FK, a combined total of 2.11. That distribution gives Şamaxı FK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Şamaxı FK win
50.9% probability
Expected goals
0.76 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Qabala home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Şamaxı FK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 21% / 28% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.76 goals for Qabala and 1.35 for Şamaxı FK, a combined 2.11 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 40%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.4%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–012.1%
- 0–211.1%
- 1–09.2%
Recent form
Qabala
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Kapaz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 0-1 (L)
Şamaxı FK
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Şamaxı FK win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.