Tofiq Bahramov Stadium · Referee C. Calilov · Analysis updated 13:41 UTC
Qarabag vs Araz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.51 expected goals for Qarabag and 0.64 for Araz, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Qarabag the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Qarabag win
78.2% probability
Expected goals
2.51 – 0.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Qarabag home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Araz away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Qarabag to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 15% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.51 goals for Qarabag and 0.64 for Araz, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
22%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.5%
- 3–011.3%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–18.6%
- 3–17.2%
Recent form
Qarabag
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Imisli FK · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zira · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Araz · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Sumqayıt · 1-0 (W)
Araz
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kapaz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Şamaxı FK · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Turan · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Qarabag · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabah FA · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Qarabag win, at 78.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.