Tofiq Bahramov Stadium · Referee E. Aliyev · Analysis updated 13:37 UTC
Qarabag vs Imisli FK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Qarabag and 0.70 for Imisli FK, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Qarabag the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Qarabag win
73.1% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Qarabag home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Imisli FK away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Qarabag to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 17% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Qarabag and 0.70 for Imisli FK, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.2%
- 1–011.6%
- 3–010.0%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.1%
Recent form
Qarabag
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Imisli FK · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zira · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Araz · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Sumqayıt · 1-0 (W)
Imisli FK
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Qarabag · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Sabah FA · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Safa Baku · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Qarabag win, at 73.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.