Tofiq Bahramov Stadium · Referee R. Hamzazade · Analysis updated 17:50 UTC
Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for Qarabag and 0.87 for Şamaxı FK, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Qarabag the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Qarabag win
53.5% probability
Expected goals
1.56 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Qarabag home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Qarabag to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 26% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.56 goals for Qarabag and 0.87 for Şamaxı FK, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 46%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.7%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–010.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
Qarabag
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Imisli FK · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zira · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Araz · 3-2 (W)
Şamaxı FK
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Qarabag win, at 53.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.