Tofiq Bahramov Stadium · Referee R. Saggi · Analysis updated 14:20 UTC
Qarabag vs Twente Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Qarabag and 1.59 for Twente, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Twente the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.7% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.59
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Qarabag home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Twente away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Twente to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 31% / 25% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Qarabag and 1.59 for Twente, a combined 2.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–17.5%
- 1–07.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.45 | 65.1% | 67.2% | 1.49 | +2.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.25 | 40.8% | 42.1% | 2.38 | +1.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.38 | 67.4% | 68.7% | 1.46 | +1.3 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.15 | 43.7% | 44.8% | 2.23 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.16 | 43.3% | 44.2% | 2.26 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Home | 3.00 | 31.1% | 31.3% | 3.19 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.65 | 56.4% | 55.8% | 1.79 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.2% | 75.5% | 1.32 | -0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.65 | 25.6% | 24.5% | 4.08 | -1.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.67 | 56.3% | 55.2% | 1.81 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 59.2% | 57.9% | 1.73 | -1.3 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.70 | 34.9% | 32.8% | 3.05 | -2.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Qarabag
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Imisli FK · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zira · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Araz · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Sumqayıt · 1-0 (W)
Twente
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Sittard · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs ADO Den Haag · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mjallby AIF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Brighton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Monaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | FK Jablonec | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Gent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | St. Truiden | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | SC Freiburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Atalanta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Ajax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Twente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Getafe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | KuPS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | CSKA Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | HNK Hajduk Split | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Pafos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Aarhus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | FC Copenhagen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | FC Midtjylland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | FC Nordsjaelland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Panathinaikos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | Brann | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | SC Braga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 | Heart Of Midlothian | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | FC Lugano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 | FC Thun | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 | Trabzonspor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 | Borac Banja Luka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 | Kairat Almaty | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 32 | Kauno Žalgiris | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 33 | Universitatea Craiova | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 34 | FC Iberia 1999 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 35 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 36 | Riga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.