Qatar Sports Club Stadium · Referee Moatasem Ahmad Al-Mazyed · Analysis updated 21:32 UTC
Qatar SC vs Al Sadd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Qatar SC and 3.25 for Al Sadd, a combined total of 4.78. That distribution gives Al Sadd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Sadd win
70.8% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 3.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Qatar SC home form
0 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Al Sadd away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
29%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–37.4%
- 1–26.8%
- 1–46.0%
- 2–35.6%
- 2–25.2%
Recent form
Qatar SC
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Rayyan SC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Arabi SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahli Doha · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Sadd · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-08-20T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Wakrah · 2-2 (D)
Al Sadd
- 2026-09-14T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Esteghlal FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-10T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Sailiya · 6-3 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Gharafa · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Gharafa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Qatar SC · 6-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · Qatar SC 2-6 Al Sadd (Stars League)
- 2026-01-08T16:30:00.000Z · Qatar SC 2-3 Al Sadd (Stars League)
- 2025-08-16T17:30:00.000Z · Qatar SC 3-2 Al Sadd (Stars League)
- 2025-01-23T13:30:00.000Z · Qatar SC 1-0 Al Sadd (Stars League)
- 2024-08-17T15:30:00.000Z · Qatar SC 1-5 Al Sadd (Stars League)
- 2024-05-24T16:00:00.000Z · Qatar SC 0-1 Al Sadd (Emir Cup)
- 2024-03-01T15:00:00.000Z · Qatar SC 0-3 Al Sadd (Stars League)
- 2023-09-23T17:00:00.000Z · Qatar SC 1-3 Al Sadd (Stars League)
- 2023-04-15T18:45:00.000Z · Qatar SC 0-2 Al Sadd (Stars League)
- 2023-02-25T13:45:00.000Z · Qatar SC 0-2 Al Sadd (Stars League)
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Rayyan SC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Al Sadd | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 |
| 3 | Al-Duhail SC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | Al-Arabi SC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Al Shamal | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Al Ahli Doha | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Al Shahaniya | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Lusail City | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | Al Wakrah | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 11 | Qatar SC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 2 |
| 12 | Al-Sailiya | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Sadd win, at 70.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.