· Analysis updated 04:28 UTC
Qatar U23 vs Al Shamal II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.64 expected goals for Qatar U23 and 0.79 for Al Shamal II, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Qatar U23 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Qatar U23 win
57.5% probability
Expected goals
1.64 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Qatar U23 home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Qatar U23 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 25% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.64 goals for Qatar U23 and 0.79 for Al Shamal II, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 44%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.4%
- 2–011.8%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
Qatar U23
- 2026-09-18T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Saudi Arabia U23 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Korea Republic U23 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Waab · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Bidda SC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-25T14:15:00.000Z · A vs UMM Salal · 1-1 (D)
Al Shamal II
- 2026-09-08T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Bidda SC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Waab · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Kharaitiyat · 0-0 (D)
- 2015-04-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Sailiya B · 3-1 (W)
- 2015-04-13T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Umm Salal B · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Markhiya | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Al Kharaitiyat | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 3 | Al Mesaimeer | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Al Bidda SC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Al Waab | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | UMM Salal | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 7 |
| 7 | Muaither SC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Al-Khor | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Qatar U23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Al Shamal II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 11 | Al-Gharafa B | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 12 | Al Rayyan SC B | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Qatar U23 win, at 57.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.