Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium · Referee K. Al Turais · Analysis updated 10:34 UTC
Qatar vs Bahrain Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Qatar and 1.18 for Bahrain, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Qatar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Qatar win
49.9% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Qatar home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Qatar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 24% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Qatar and 1.18 for Bahrain, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 57%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–26.6%
Recent form
Qatar
- 2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · A vs United Arab Emirates · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:55:00.000Z · A vs Yemen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Bahrain · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bosnia & Herzegovina · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-18T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Canada · 0-6 (L)
Bahrain
- 2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Yemen · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs United Arab Emirates · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Qatar · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Georgia · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-12-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudan · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Qatar win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.