Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.45 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Qingdao Jonoon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.53 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Qingdao Jonoon home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sichuan Jiuniu away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Qingdao Jonoon win40%

Draw24%

Sichuan Jiuniu win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.3%
2–18.6%
1–28.2%
1–07.8%
0–17.4%

Recent form

Qingdao Jonoon

2026-10-17T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Shenyang Urban · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-09T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Beijing Guoan · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Dalian Zhixing · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Wuhan Three Towns · 1-5 (L)
2026-08-23T11:35:00.000Z · A vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 1-2 (L)

Sichuan Jiuniu

2026-10-09T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Henan Jianye · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shandong Luneng · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-28T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-22T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Hangzhou Greentown · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Shenyang Urban · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · Qingdao Jonoon 2-3 Sichuan Jiuniu (Super League)
2025-07-19T11:35:00.000Z · Qingdao Jonoon 0-4 Sichuan Jiuniu (Super League)
2025-03-01T07:30:00.000Z · Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 Sichuan Jiuniu (Super League)
2024-08-17T11:00:00.000Z · Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 Sichuan Jiuniu (Super League)
2024-04-26T11:00:00.000Z · Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 Sichuan Jiuniu (Super League)
2022-09-19T07:30:00.000Z · Qingdao Jonoon 2-0 Sichuan Jiuniu (League One)
2022-09-04T07:30:00.000Z · Qingdao Jonoon 1-2 Sichuan Jiuniu (League One)

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chengdu Better City	27	15	7	5	20	52
2	Dalian Zhixing	27	13	4	10	0	43
3	Beijing Guoan	27	12	10	5	19	41
4	Shandong Luneng	27	13	5	9	3	38
5	Yunnan Yukun	27	11	5	11	-3	38
6	Qingdao Youth Island	27	8	14	5	-5	38
7	SHANGHAI SIPG	27	11	8	8	9	36
8	Shanghai Shenhua	27	13	5	9	12	34
9	Chongqing Tongliang Long	27	7	11	9	-5	32
10	Tianjin Teda	28	11	8	9	6	31
11	Hangzhou Greentown	27	10	6	11	0	31
12	Sichuan Jiuniu	27	8	5	14	-11	29
13	Henan Jianye	28	8	10	10	-3	28
14	Shenyang Urban	27	7	5	15	-13	26
15	Wuhan Three Towns	27	5	12	10	-7	22
16	Qingdao Jonoon	27	6	3	18	-22	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.