Qingdao Youth Football Stadium · Referee Muhammad Taqi, Singapore · Analysis updated 16:57 UTC
Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.76 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives Wuhan Three Towns the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Qingdao Jonoon home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wuhan Three Towns away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wuhan Three Towns to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 36% / 23% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.76 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined 3.37 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.8%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–16.0%
Recent form
Qingdao Jonoon
- 2026-10-17T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Shenyang Urban · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-09T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Beijing Guoan · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Dalian Zhixing · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Wuhan Three Towns · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-23T11:35:00.000Z · A vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 1-2 (L)
Wuhan Three Towns
- 2026-10-11T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Shenyang Urban · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Hangzhou Greentown · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Henan Jianye · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Qingdao Youth Island · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Qingdao Jonoon · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Better City | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 20 | 52 |
| 2 | Dalian Zhixing | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 43 |
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 41 |
| 4 | Shandong Luneng | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 38 |
| 5 | Yunnan Yukun | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | -3 | 38 |
| 6 | Qingdao Youth Island | 27 | 8 | 14 | 5 | -5 | 38 |
| 7 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 36 |
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 34 |
| 9 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 27 | 7 | 11 | 9 | -5 | 32 |
| 10 | Tianjin Teda | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 31 |
| 11 | Hangzhou Greentown | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 31 |
| 12 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | -11 | 29 |
| 13 | Henan Jianye | 28 | 8 | 10 | 10 | -3 | 28 |
| 14 | Shenyang Urban | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | -13 | 26 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 27 | 5 | 12 | 10 | -7 | 22 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 27 | 6 | 3 | 18 | -22 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.