Qingdao Red Lions vs BIT Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Qingdao Red Lions and 0.78 for BIT, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Qingdao Red Lions the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Qingdao Red Lions win

50.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 0.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Qingdao Red Lions home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
BIT away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Qingdao Red Lions to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 28% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Qingdao Red Lions and 0.78 for BIT, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Qingdao Red Lions win50%

Draw28%

BIT win22%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–016.1%
1–112.5%
0–011.9%
2–010.9%
0–19.3%

Recent form

Qingdao Red Lions

2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Shangyu Pterosaur · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Xiamen Feilu · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Shanghai Port II · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Nantong Haimen Codion · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-15T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Xi'an Ronghai · 1-0 (W)

BIT

2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Xiamen Feilu · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Shangyu Pterosaur · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Dalian Yingbo B · 4-3 (W)
2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Changchun Xidu · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Shanghai Second · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-27T10:30:00.000Z · Qingdao Red Lions 6-1 BIT (League Two)
2026-05-04T11:00:00.000Z · Qingdao Red Lions 1-1 BIT (League Two)
2023-07-22T08:00:00.000Z · Qingdao Red Lions 2-1 BIT (League Two)
2023-06-06T08:00:00.000Z · Qingdao Red Lions 2-1 BIT (League Two)

League Two table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shanghai Port II	25	14	4	7	19	46
2	Guizhou Zhucheng	25	14	3	8	14	45
3	Shandong Taishan II	25	13	6	6	13	45
4	Xi'an Ronghai	25	13	5	7	12	44
5	Dalian Kewei	25	11	11	3	10	44
6	Shenzhen 2028	25	11	8	6	11	41
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	25	10	8	7	7	38
8	Jiangxi Liansheng	25	11	5	9	5	38
9	Tai'an Tiankuang	25	9	9	7	5	36
10	Langfang Glory City	25	8	12	5	-5	36
11	Nantong Haimen Codion	25	7	12	6	6	33
12	Xiamen Feilu	25	8	8	9	1	32
13	Dalian Yingbo B	25	7	11	7	-1	32
14	Rizhao Yuqi	25	6	14	5	-2	32
15	Guangdong Mingtu	25	6	13	6	3	31
16	Shangyu Pterosaur	25	7	8	10	-16	29
17	Qingdao Red Lions	25	6	10	9	0	28
18	Guangzhou Dandelion	25	6	8	11	-8	26
19	Yichun Grand Tiger	25	5	11	9	-9	26
20	Changchun Xidu	25	4	13	8	-12	25
21	Chengdu Rongcheng II	25	5	9	11	-8	24
22	Wuhan Three Towns II	25	5	8	12	-6	23
23	BIT	25	5	7	13	-21	22
24	Shanghai Second	25	2	11	12	-18	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Qingdao Red Lions win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.