Qingdao Red Lions vs Wuhan Three Towns II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Qingdao Red Lions and 0.80 for Wuhan Three Towns II, a combined total of 1.94. That distribution gives Qingdao Red Lions the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

74.1% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.13 – 0.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Qingdao Red Lions home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wuhan Three Towns II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Qingdao Red Lions to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 31% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Qingdao Red Lions and 0.80 for Wuhan Three Towns II, a combined 1.94 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Qingdao Red Lions win43%

Draw31%

Wuhan Three Towns II win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals58%

Over 2.5 goals31%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

1–016.3%
0–014.4%
1–113.1%
0–111.6%
2–09.2%

Recent form

Qingdao Red Lions

2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Shangyu Pterosaur · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Xiamen Feilu · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Shanghai Port II · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Nantong Haimen Codion · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-15T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Xi'an Ronghai · 1-0 (W)

Wuhan Three Towns II

2026-10-06T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Qingdao Red Lions · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Nantong Haimen Codion · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Tai'an Tiankuang · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-23T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Shangyu Pterosaur · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-16T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Guangdong Mingtu · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

League Two table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shanghai Port II	28	15	5	8	19	50
2	Xi'an Ronghai	28	15	5	8	13	50
3	Guizhou Zhucheng	28	15	4	9	14	49
4	Dalian Kewei	28	12	13	3	11	49
5	Shandong Taishan II	27	13	8	6	13	47
6	Shenzhen 2028	28	11	9	8	9	42
7	Langfang Glory City	28	9	14	5	-4	41
8	Nantong Haimen Codion	28	9	13	6	11	40
9	Hubei Chufeng Heli	28	10	10	8	6	40
10	Tai'an Tiankuang	28	10	10	8	5	40
11	Dalian Yingbo B	28	9	12	7	4	39
12	Jiangxi Liansheng	27	11	6	10	4	39
13	Xiamen Feilu	28	9	10	9	4	37
14	Guangdong Mingtu	28	7	15	6	4	36
15	Rizhao Yuqi	28	6	16	6	-3	34
16	Qingdao Red Lions	28	7	11	10	-2	32
17	Changchun Xidu	28	6	14	8	-10	32
18	Shangyu Pterosaur	28	7	10	11	-17	31
19	Guangzhou Dandelion	28	7	9	12	-7	30
20	Wuhan Three Towns II	28	6	9	13	-7	27
21	Yichun Grand Tiger	28	5	12	11	-14	27
22	Chengdu Rongcheng II	28	5	10	13	-12	25
23	BIT	28	5	10	13	-21	25
24	Shanghai Second	28	2	13	13	-20	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.