Qingdao Red Lions vs Xi'an Ronghai Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Qingdao Red Lions and 1.10 for Xi'an Ronghai, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Xi'an Ronghai the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

70.5% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.90 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Qingdao Red Lions home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Xi'an Ronghai away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Xi'an Ronghai to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 30% / 31% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Qingdao Red Lions and 1.10 for Xi'an Ronghai, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Qingdao Red Lions win30%

Draw31%

Xi'an Ronghai win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals59%

Over 2.5 goals32%

Over 3.5 goals14%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

0–114.9%
0–013.5%
1–113.4%
1–012.2%
0–28.2%

Recent form

Qingdao Red Lions

2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Shangyu Pterosaur · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Xiamen Feilu · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Shanghai Port II · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Nantong Haimen Codion · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-15T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Xi'an Ronghai · 1-0 (W)

Xi'an Ronghai

2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Guizhou Zhucheng · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Shenzhen 2028 · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Rizhao Yuqi · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-15T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Qingdao Red Lions · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Changchun Xidu · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-15T08:00:00.000Z · Qingdao Red Lions 1-0 Xi'an Ronghai (League Two)
2026-05-27T07:00:00.000Z · Qingdao Red Lions 3-2 Xi'an Ronghai (League Two)

League Two table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shanghai Port II	28	15	5	8	19	50
2	Shandong Taishan II	28	14	8	6	14	50
3	Xi'an Ronghai	28	15	5	8	13	50
4	Guizhou Zhucheng	28	15	4	9	14	49
5	Dalian Kewei	28	12	13	3	11	49
6	Shenzhen 2028	28	11	9	8	9	42
7	Langfang Glory City	28	9	14	5	-4	41
8	Nantong Haimen Codion	28	9	13	6	11	40
9	Hubei Chufeng Heli	28	10	10	8	6	40
10	Tai'an Tiankuang	28	10	10	8	5	40
11	Dalian Yingbo B	28	9	12	7	4	39
12	Jiangxi Liansheng	28	11	6	11	3	39
13	Xiamen Feilu	28	9	10	9	4	37
14	Guangdong Mingtu	28	7	15	6	4	36
15	Rizhao Yuqi	28	6	16	6	-3	34
16	Qingdao Red Lions	28	7	11	10	-2	32
17	Changchun Xidu	28	6	14	8	-10	32
18	Shangyu Pterosaur	28	7	10	11	-17	31
19	Guangzhou Dandelion	28	7	9	12	-7	30
20	Wuhan Three Towns II	28	6	9	13	-7	27
21	Yichun Grand Tiger	28	5	12	11	-14	27
22	Chengdu Rongcheng II	28	5	10	13	-12	25
23	BIT	28	5	10	13	-21	25
24	Shanghai Second	28	2	13	13	-20	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.