Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi · Referee U. Rahimjonov · Analysis updated 05:59 UTC
Qizilqum vs Mash'al Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Qizilqum and 1.28 for Mash'al, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Qizilqum the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Qizilqum home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mash'al away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–19.7%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
Qizilqum
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Surkhon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Xorazm · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Samarqand · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Buxoro · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Nasaf · 1-0 (W)
Mash'al
- 2026-10-22T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bunyodkor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olmaliq · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Kokand-1912 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pakhtakor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · Qizilqum 2-0 Mash'al (Super League)
- 2026-03-10T14:45:00.000Z · Qizilqum 2-0 Mash'al (Super League)
- 2025-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · Qizilqum 1-0 Mash'al (Super League)
- 2025-05-11T14:00:00.000Z · Qizilqum 2-2 Mash'al (Super League)
- 2024-07-03T15:30:00.000Z · Qizilqum 3-1 Mash'al (Cup)
- 2021-11-21T09:00:00.000Z · Qizilqum 1-2 Mash'al (Super League)
- 2021-07-02T15:00:00.000Z · Qizilqum 2-0 Mash'al (Super League)
- 2020-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · Qizilqum 1-0 Mash'al (Super League)
- 2020-03-14T11:00:00.000Z · Qizilqum 1-1 Mash'al (Super League)
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi | 24 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 55 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 24 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 21 | 53 |
| 3 | Navbahor | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 46 |
| 4 | Buxoro | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 40 |
| 5 | Olmaliq | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 39 |
| 6 | Lokomotiv | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 39 |
| 7 | Nasaf | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 38 |
| 8 | Qizilqum | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | -6 | 33 |
| 9 | Andijan | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | -3 | 30 |
| 10 | Dinamo Samarqand | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 29 |
| 12 | Surkhon | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -9 | 28 |
| 13 | Bunyodkor | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | -15 | 26 |
| 14 | Kokand-1912 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 15 | Xorazm | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -14 | 23 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 25 | 1 | 1 | 23 | -38 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.