High Street Oval · Analysis updated 21:37 UTC
Queanbeyan City vs Tuggeranong United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Queanbeyan City and 1.63 for Tuggeranong United, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Queanbeyan City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Queanbeyan City home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tuggeranong United away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Queanbeyan City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 22% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Queanbeyan City and 1.63 for Tuggeranong United, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.1%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.6%
Recent form
Queanbeyan City
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Tuggeranong United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T05:00:00.000Z · H vs O'Connor Knights · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T06:30:00.000Z · A vs Canberra Juventus · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-05T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Tuggeranong United · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-01T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Brindabella · 3-0 (W)
Tuggeranong United
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Queanbeyan City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Canberra Juventus · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Brindabella · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-05T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Queanbeyan City · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Canberra Olympic · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Capital Territory NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canberra FC | 20 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 52 |
| 2 | Monaro Panthers | 20 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 46 |
| 3 | Cooma Tigers FC | 20 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 44 |
| 4 | Tuggeranong United | 20 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 42 |
| 5 | Queanbeyan City | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 38 |
| 6 | Canberra Juventus | 20 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 33 |
| 7 | Canberra Olympic | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 8 | O'Connor Knights | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | -15 | 20 |
| 9 | Belconnen United | 20 | 2 | 3 | 15 | -25 | 9 |
| 10 | Brindabella | 20 | 3 | 0 | 17 | -51 | 9 |
| 11 | Canberra White Eagles | 20 | 2 | 1 | 17 | -43 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.