Palmerston Park · Analysis updated 14:21 UTC
Queen of the South vs Cove Rangers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Queen of the South and 1.45 for Cove Rangers, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Cove Rangers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Queen of the South home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cove Rangers away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cove Rangers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 33% / 26% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Queen of the South and 1.45 for Cove Rangers, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–17.6%
Recent form
Queen of the South
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Peterhead · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cove Rangers · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rangers U21 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Annan Athletic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamilton Academical · 1-4 (L)
Cove Rangers
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Queen of the South · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Fraserburgh · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ross County · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Montrose · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 22 |
| 2 | Hamilton Academical | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 22 |
| 3 | East Kilbride | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Montrose | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 5 | Airdrie United | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 12 |
| 6 | Alloa Athletic | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | East Fife | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 8 | Peterhead | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 7 |
| 9 | Queen of the South | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -17 | 7 |
| 10 | Cove Rangers | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.