Palmerston Park · Analysis updated 03:45 UTC
Queen of the South vs Ross County Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Queen of the South and 2.90 for Ross County, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Ross County the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ross County win
76.1% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 2.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Queen of the South home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ross County away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ross County to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 10% / 14% / 76% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Queen of the South and 2.90 for Ross County, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
24%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–28.5%
- 1–28.5%
- 0–38.2%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–46.0%
Recent form
Queen of the South
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alloa Athletic · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ross County · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Berwick Rangers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Peterhead · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cove Rangers · 4-3 (W)
Ross County
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Airdrie United · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Queen of the South · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Forfar Athletic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Montrose · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Alloa Athletic · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 31 |
| 2 | Hamilton Academical | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 31 |
| 3 | Montrose | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 19 |
| 4 | East Kilbride | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Airdrie United | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 13 |
| 6 | Queen of the South | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -21 | 13 |
| 7 | Alloa Athletic | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Peterhead | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 9 | East Fife | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 10 | Cove Rangers | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ross County win, at 76.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.