The City Stadium · Referee C. Steven · Analysis updated 16:05 UTC
Queen's Park vs Dunfermline Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Queen's Park and 1.63 for Dunfermline, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Dunfermline the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Dunfermline win
54.1% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Queen's Park home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dunfermline away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.7%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–210.4%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.4%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.10 | 43.5% | 45.9% | 2.18 | +2.4 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.28 | 73.2% | 74.7% | 1.34 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Home | 4.50 | 19.9% | 21.2% | 4.72 | +1.3 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | 53.1% | 1.88 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 74.9% | 75.3% | 1.33 | +0.4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.80 | 51.5% | 51.6% | 1.94 | +0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 48.5% | 48.4% | 2.07 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.65 | 54.4% | 54.1% | 1.85 | -0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.00 | 47.4% | 46.9% | 2.13 | -0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.6% | 24.7% | 4.05 | -0.9 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.50 | 26.8% | 25.3% | 3.95 | -1.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.12 | 81.6% | 78.8% | 1.27 | -2.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Queen's Park
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Morton · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Inverness CT · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Raith Rovers · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Arbroath · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Ayr Utd · 0-2 (L)
Dunfermline
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Partick · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Livingston · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ayr Utd · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Morton · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · Queen's Park 0-2 Dunfermline (Championship)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · Queen's Park 0-2 Dunfermline (Championship)
- 2026-02-28T15:00:00.000Z · Queen's Park 0-1 Dunfermline (Championship)
- 2025-12-13T15:00:00.000Z · Queen's Park 1-1 Dunfermline (Championship)
- 2025-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · Queen's Park 0-0 Dunfermline (Championship)
- 2025-04-12T14:00:00.000Z · Queen's Park 0-1 Dunfermline (Championship)
- 2025-02-22T15:00:00.000Z · Queen's Park 0-0 Dunfermline (Championship)
- 2024-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · Queen's Park 2-1 Dunfermline (Championship)
- 2024-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Queen's Park 2-1 Dunfermline (Championship)
- 2024-04-20T14:00:00.000Z · Queen's Park 0-0 Dunfermline (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | Partick | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Livingston | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 11 |
| 9 | Morton | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dunfermline win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.